Estimating health damage cost from secondary sulfate particles - a case study of Hunan Province,China

China's coal-dominated energy pattern has resulted in large amount of SO2 emissions. Estimate of the sulfur-related health damage cost is necessary to help perform systematic cost-benefit analysis and set national energy and emissions control priorities. Current researches were confined to gaseous SO2 in urban areas; however, secondary sulfate (SO42-) particles can exert serious impact in a wider region. Based on the concept of "intake fraction", CALPUFF long-range dispersion model and 180 sample emission sources, multiple regression equation was obtained with good correlation(r=0.85), which illustrates that populations were key parameters to determine intake fraction but source characteristics were insignificant. Based on the formula and the population distribution data, county-level intake fractions were mapped for Hunan Province(range: 1.1×10-6-3.2×10-6) of China. A combination of county-level SO2 emissions with the intake fractions yields a total 1.98 tons of sulfate(SO42-) inhalation, and resulting total health damage cost to be 0.76(willingness to pay approach) or 0.16(human capital approach) billion USD in 1997, about 2.1% or 0.45% of GDP in Hunan in 1997. Average health damage cost per ton of SO2 emission is 930(willingness to pay approach) or 200 USD(human capital approach). The results demonstrated that more stringent regulation should be forced.

作 者： HAO Ji-ming LI Ji YE Xue-mei ZHU Tian-le   作者單位： Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China  刊 名： 環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(英文版)  ISTIC SCI 英文刊名： JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES  年，卷(期)： 2003 15(5)  分類號(hào)： X503.1 X327  關(guān)鍵詞： intake fraction   health impact   Hunan Province   sulfate   regression analysis  

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