遼中地區(qū)礦業(yè)城市生態(tài)承載力分析與預(yù)測

摘要： 遼中地區(qū)礦業(yè)城市是我國重要的能源生產(chǎn)和重工業(yè)基地,研究其生態(tài)承載力狀況并預(yù)測其發(fā)展趨勢,有利于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟、生態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展.基于資源保障率、環(huán)境承載力和社會經(jīng)濟增長相統(tǒng)一的原則,運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方法建立了遼中地區(qū)礦業(yè)城市生態(tài)承載力評價模型,評價了1997-2006年研究區(qū)生態(tài)承載力狀況,預(yù)測了2006-2020年研究區(qū)生態(tài)承載力變化趨勢.結(jié)果表明:1997-2006年,遼中地區(qū)礦業(yè)城市生態(tài)承載力總體處于超載狀態(tài),但發(fā)展趨勢差別顯著.鞍山生態(tài)承載力指數(shù)從1.686下降到1.301,年均下降2.56%,但仍處于超載狀態(tài);撫順生態(tài)承載力指數(shù)從1.169下降到0.909,年均下降2.49%,生態(tài)承載力從超載變?yōu)橛��?本溪生態(tài)承載力指數(shù)從1.070上升到1.249,年均上升1.56%,超載程度不斷加大.2006-2020年,遼中地區(qū)礦業(yè)城市生態(tài)承載力總體上處于超載程度加大的趨勢,鞍山、撫順和本溪生態(tài)承載力指數(shù)年均增長率分別達到0.89%、1.56%和1.81%.作為礦業(yè)城市,鞍山、撫順和本溪需要優(yōu)先保障水資源和能源的供需平衡.改善水環(huán)境質(zhì)量,從而達到生態(tài)承載力的提高. Abstract： The mining cities in central Liaoning region are the important energy production and heavy industrial base of China, and the study on the ecological carrying capacity status (ECC) and the prediction of the developing trend in these areas are of great significant to the harmonious de-velopment between economy and ecology. Based on the unity of resources ensurence rate, environ-mental carrying capacity and socio-economic growth principle, the ECC model of the mining cities in central Liaoning region was established by system dynamics approach. The ECC status of the study region was evaluated through 1997 to 2006, and the developing trend for 2006-2020 was predicted. Results showed that: from 1997 to 2006, the ECC of the mining cities in central Liaon-ing region was overloaded in general, but the developing trend was regional specific. The ECC in-dex of Anshan changed from 1.686 to 1.301, and averagely decreased by 2.56% per year, but the ECC was still overloaded. The ECC index of Fushun changed from 1.169 to 0.909, and averagely decreased by 2.49% per year, the ECC status changed from overload to surplus. The ECC index of Benxi elevated from 1.070 to 1.249, and averagely increased by 1.56% per year, the overloading extent was increasing constantly. Generally, from 2006 to 2020, the ECC of central Liaoning re-gion was overloaded, of which the overloaded extent was increasing constantly, and the average in-crease rate of the ECC index per year for Anshan, Fushun and Benxi were 0.89%, 1.56% and 1.81%, respectively. In conclusion, as mining cities, Anshan, Fushun and Benxi should give prior-ities to the ensuring of water resource and energy resource supply, and improve the ecological car-rying capacity. 作 者： 顧康康    劉景雙    王洋    GU Kangkang    LIU Jingshuang    WANG Yang   作者單位： 顧康康,GU Kangkang(安徽建筑工業(yè)學(xué)院建筑與規(guī)劃學(xué)院,合肥,230022;中國科學(xué)院東北地理與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所,長春,130012)

劉景雙,王洋,LIU Jingshuang,WANG Yang(中國科學(xué)院東北地理與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所,長春,130012) 

期 刊： 地理科學(xué)進展  ISTICPKU   Journal： PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY  年，卷(期)： 2009, 28(6)  分類號： X1  關(guān)鍵詞： 資源保障率    環(huán)境承載力    社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展    系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)    預(yù)測    礦業(yè)城市    Keywords： resources ensurence rate    environment carrying capacity    socio-economic growth    system dynamics approach    prediction    mining cities   

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